President of Nigeria

I’m just reading that President Yar’adua died. This could be a big deal. Nigeria has massive amounts of oil, rebels trying to control it, and a nasty history of coups.

4 thoughts on “President of Nigeria

  1. I just read the same thing and came to your blog to see if you had commented on it. I was hoping that since the new president has been acting president for a couple of months, the transition would be less crazy than usual. Maybe it has instead given opponents plenty of time to formulate their attack plans for when the inevitable occurred?

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  2. D, I think that may be right. Hopefully people will sit tight and let Goodluck Jonathan just keep doing his thing. The scheduled elections are due in less than a year, I think, and it would be easier for whoever next wants to be president if he gets elected rather than seizes power. I'm looking for more to read, but my sense is that the chances someone seizes power are small, but the consequences would be enormous. And any incident (i.e. this death) that creates a situation of new and uncharted territory may embolden some loonies.

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  3. I work with several Nigerians here and they all conveyed the sense that this was really no surprise. There was some sadness, I think, but all of them pointed out that it was clearly coming given the president's health. Hopefully that means Goodluck Jonathan and his people have prepared for this for a while…

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  4. AOK, that's interesting. It's analogous to the Fed dropping broad hints so that there's no surprise when they change interest rates. I think that's the most convincing argument I've heard so far for why things could stay well-balanced.

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